Sustentabilidade da política fiscal brasileira no período pós real: 1995 - 2006.
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Sustentabilidade da política fiscal brasileira no período pós real: 1995 - 2006.
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| Id. |
36785525 |
| Idioma |
PT
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| Titulo |
Sustentabilidade da política fiscal brasileira no período pós real: 1995 - 2006. |
| Autor(es) |
Gélio Luiz Barreto Barbosa
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| Localización |
http://www.bibliotecadigital.ufba.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=1163
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| Versión |
1.0 |
| Estado |
Final
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| Descripción |
The objective of this dissertation is to evaluate the sustainability of the Brazilian fiscal policy during the period from 1995 to 2006, considering the dynamics of growth of the federal public debt, the behavior of the public incoming and expenditure, and the behavior of the primary result to face the new increases in the public indebtedness. The basic idea is to verify, regarding the macroeconomic context of the period mentioned above, whether the government is maintaining a fiscal discipline with the purpose of establishing a balanced relation between incomings, expenses and primary result, to stabilize and to reduce the debtto-GDP ratio without making abrupt modifications in the conduction of the fiscal policy. The sustainability of the fiscal policy is analyzed under temporal and financial dimensions. The temporal dimension treats about the evolution of Public Sector Net Debt (PSND) in proportion to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), using the model of statistic regression, whereas the financial dimension presupposes the application of econometrical tests of stationarity and co-integration of the monthly temporal series of the PSND, the primary result, the total incomings and expenditures of the government, in order to verify the satisfaction of its intertemporal budget restriction. The results of the tests have demonstrated that the net incoming did not follow in an equivalent way the increase verified in the expenditures of the central government, despite the existing positive relation among the variables. The same occurred to the relation between the primary result and the PSND. Regarding the economic theory, the maintenance of such situation will imply the possibility of occurring future deficit accumulations and this will compel the government to modify abruptly the conduction of its fiscal policy to maintain the PSND in sustainable levels. Based on the results obtained, it was possible to confirm the initial assumption that the federal public debt solvency was partially reached and that, therefore, the Brazilian fiscal policy on the period under analysis is showed as being ?weakly? sustainable.
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| Tipo |
PDF
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| Palabras clave |
intertemporal budget restriction
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| Tipo de recurso |
Electronic Thesis or Dissertation
Tese ou Dissertacao Eletronica
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| Tipo de Interactividad |
Expositivo
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| Nivel de Interactividad |
muy bajo
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| Audiencia |
Estudiante
Profesor
Autor
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| Estructura |
Atomic |
| Coste |
no
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| Copyright |
sí
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| Formatos |
PDF
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| Requerimientos técnicos |
Browser: Any
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| Fecha de contribución |
06-sep-2008 |
| Contacto |
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