This paper compares financial assistance programmes of four euro-area countries
(Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Cyprus) and three non-euro-area countries
(Hungary, Latvia, and Romania) of the European Union in the aftermath of the
2007/08 global financial and economic crisis—which were supported by the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and various European financing facilities.
These programmes have distinct features compared with assistance programmes
in other parts of the world, such as the size of imbalances, financing, unique
cooperation of the IMF and various European facilities, and membership of a
currency union in the case of euro-area countries. We evaluate the programmes
by assessing their success in creating conditions to regain market access,...
Many hope that after the upcoming French and German elections, a renewed and invigorated Franco-German tandem will be able to breathe some new life into the European integration process. A lot, however, will depend on who the next French president will be. The popularity of the two French extremist candidates, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen, and the prospect of their potential success in the presidential race is creating political anxiety in Berlin. But whom would the Germans rather see become the next French president? In this Commentary, Yann-Sven Rittelmeyer takes a look at the upcoming French elections from a...
Eppler, Annegret; Anders, Lisa H.; Tuntschew, Thomas
Since the outbreak of the European debt crisis, the EU has faced some of its greatest
challenges to date. Discussions about the downsizing of the Eurozone, the UK exit
referendum or the increasing success of EU-sceptic parties contradict the vision of an “evercloser
union.” As disintegration becomes increasingly conceivable, so does our need for a
conceptual understanding of the compound processes of European integration. In the present
paper, European integration is understood as a bidirectional and multidimensional process. It
is assumed that processes of integration and disintegration can occur simultaneously, and that
their results can be measured with the help of the same indicators. Moreover, European
de Vries, Catherine; Dinas, Elias; Solaz, Hector
For representative democracy to work, legislators need to be responsive to the concerns of citizens. One way in which this can be achieved is through constituency service. Two factors drive constituency service: extrinsic and intrinsic motivations. Research to date suggests that extrinsic motivations are crucial for constituency service. Yet, this evidence stems primarily from the US context characterized by a personal ballot structure and campaign content which may bias findings in favor of extrinsic motivations. We present evidence from the first ever field experiment conducted in the European Parliament (EP) in which we vary both the extrinsic and intrinsic motivations...
Giuli , Marco
Brexit is taking place at a crucial moment for the energy systems of both the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU). As the energy transition goes on, their interdependence is set to grow. However, a wide range of energy-related policy areas is expected to face the uncertainty caused by the UK’s decision to leave the EU. This commentary analyses the implications of the energy-relevant aspects of the respective negotiating positions as defined by the UK White Paper and Article 50 letter, and the European Council negotiation guidelines.
Prime Minister Theresa May has called for a general election on 8 June, to strengthen her mandate. Under British electoral law she needs a two-thirds majority in Westminster, but the Labour Party already looks set to support this move. This general election will be seen as being under the auspices of Brexit, with the Prime Minister claiming that an early election is “necessary to secure the strong and stable leadership the country needs to see us through Brexit and beyond”. Indeed, she has called for the opposition parties to make their Brexit vision(s) the central issue of the elections: “Let...
It has been one of the most successful pieces of European regulation. Back in 2000, just as
the internet was going mainstream, Europe enacted the E-Commerce Directive, setting
clear limits on liability for digital platforms. Platforms weren’t held responsible for illegal
material uploaded to their sites. Instead, they were responsible only for bringing down illegal
material when informed.
Blockmans, Steven.; Yilmaz, Sinem
Dictators do not simply come and go. And when they go, they rarely go quietly. The test
of a dictator like President Erdoğan isn't how he came to power but how he treats
critics, journalists, minorities, and whether he can still be outvoted. Now that a narrow
majority of Turkish voters in the referendum has supported the codification of autocracy, any
hope for the democratic removal of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has evaporated. Given this sorry
state of affairs, the EU has no other choice but to terminate Turkey’s accession process. By
constitutionalising an executive presidential system that erases the separation of powers and
frees Erdoğan’s hands to...
The economic statistics for 2016 indicate that Ukraine has managed to overcome the toughest
phase of the economic crisis. For the first time in four years, the Ukrainian economy recorded
a positive growth rate of around 2%. This is due to the reforms launched in the first months
following the EuroMaidan and of the implementation of the reconstruction programme under
pressure from Western lenders, mainly the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the EU.
In addition, the favourable situation on global commodity markets and the drop in the price
of energy resources, as well as good weather conditions which enabled record high grain
harvest and an all-time-high export...
Dadush, Uri; Demertzis, Maria; Wolff, Guntram B.
Executive Summary. Africa’s population is projected to reach almost 2.5 billion by 2050. Migration from Africa
to the EU is relatively stable, at around 500,000 migrants per year, or 0.1 percent of the EU
population, yet irregular immigration into the EU has increased recently.
Development is often seen as the way to reduce migration but the development-migration
nexus is complex. At low levels of development, migration might increase with rising
GDP per capita. This applies to most of sub-Saharan Africa.
By contrast, North African countries are among the continent’s more developed economies.
Their geographical positions make them natural partners for the EU. The region is
diverse but political...
Cardiff EDC, .
A guide to information sources on Armenia, with hyperlinks to information within European Sources Online and on external websites.
Ezrow, Lawrence; Böhmelt, Tobias; Lehrer, Roni
Previous research suggests that political parties respond to left-right policy positions of
successful foreign political parties that have recently governed (“foreign leaders”). We evaluate
whether this is an effective electoral strategy: do political parties gain votes in and office after
elections when they respond to successful foreign parties? We argue that following foreign
leaders allows parties to better identify the position of their own (domestic) median voter
position, which increases their electoral support. The analysis is based on spatial-econometric
and instrumental-variable model specifications of parties’ vote shares and whether they obtained
office. The results suggest that following foreign leaders is a beneficial election strategy in
national elections. The...
Wlasak, Petra; Blais , Jean-Sébastien
If traditionally citizens’ influence in the design of strategic goals and policies
was limited by the right to vote, the last few decades witnessed the emergence
of a normative discourse and the implementation of different initiatives,
challenging the representative democracy to offer a structure capable of
enabling the dialogue between those elected and voters. By proposing a number
of participatory alternatives empowering citizens, some of the democracies
using those concepts are committed towards a culture of participatory
The two authors of this paper argue that learning and experimenting are
crucial elements to find new forms and methods for participatory governance
in order to strengthen democratic cultures, enhance the resonance...
Šehović, Annamarie Bindenagel
From the Introduction. The end of the Cold War gave the (Western) world an apparent
reprieve from weapons of mass destruction. Then
came HIV and AIDS. Since then, a host of human insecurities
and pandemic threats have converged to upend
that semblance of order.
Schumacher , Tobias
After the recent escalation of fighting
between Azerbaijan and Armenia-backed
separatist forces of the self-proclaimed
Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh – the
bloodiest and most wide-ranging for the
last 22 years – the South Caucasus has
re-emerged in the international spotlight.
What are the prospects of the recently
concluded ceasefire agreement mediat
Ewert , Insa
In 2012, negotiations over an EU–China bilateral investment agreement were launched to fully tap into the potential of bilateral investments. This policy brief gives an overview of the current negotiation process and argues that the high hopes advanced politically and economically in the agreement must be weighed against the many challenges and obstacles the negotiations face,
regarding current events in EU–China relations, in global trade and investment regimes, and the limits of EU competencies. Strategically, the agreement could be important, as it offers the potential to strengthen the EU’s global economic relevance. This brief concludes that there is much to gain...
From the Introduction. Who really wants to do it? Since the Brexit referendum in the UK and the publication
of the EU Global Strategy (EUGS) in June 2016, there has been a flurry of proposals
by Member States to deepen defence cooperation in the context of the EU. Most
notable among these were two Franco-German papers, first by the two foreign and
then by the two defence ministers, and a proposal by the French, German, Italian and
Spanish defence ministers. Most notable, because without both France and Germany
involved, no initiative can reach the scale to make it worthwhile. And because if
France, Germany, Italy and Spain...
From the Introduction. The European Union (EU) and China are both central actors in international affairs,
collectively accounting for almost 40% (in current market prices) of the world’s gross
domestic product (GDP).1
While addressing the key global challenges of the 21st
century increasingly requires an entente between these two actors, their relationship
is often plagued by conflicting interests. Whether or not the EU will grant market
economy status to China still looms largely in the trade relations of the two; the EU
is still yet to lift its arms embargo on China; and they also differ in climate action
responsibilities, to name a few.
From the Executive Summary. When eurozone leaders committed themselves in June 2012 to creating a single
supervisory mechanism (SSM, now also known as European banking supervision),
few in Europe realised the magnitude of the project. Since then, raising banking
supervision to the European level has proven to be one of Europe’s most ambitious
projects of the last decades. This is all the more true given that European banking
supervision had to be set up in a particularly challenging environment due to the
legal hurdles and the urgency involved. This Egmont Paper discusses the key
André, Sophie; Devroe, Elke; Duquet , Nils; Lemeunier, France; Ponsaers, Paul; Renard, Thomas; Seron, Vincent
From the Introduction. Some days can never be forgotten. Tuesday, 22 March, started just like any other day
of any other week, as another grey morning followed another cold night in Belgium.
But at exactly 7:58, that morning turned into a living nightmare. Two individuals
detonated powerful bombs in the departure hallway of Brussels Airport. One hour
later, at 9:11 a.m., a third explosion in the Brussels subway confirmed that Belgium
was under attack. Thirty-two people died, and more than 300 were injured on that
tragic day. For most Belgian citizens and residents, this was more than a tragedy; it
was a traumatic event. Many could relate...