Daesh with its proto-state and its shining aura of invincibility and unstoppable expansion, attracting myriads of foreign volunteers to the Levant, is rapidly coming to an end. What happens next ? Worst-case predictions often grab the headlines. But jihadism has waxed and waned over the last three decades. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that the fascination with Daesh will die out as a result of the failure of its state project, since this constituted a critical part of Daesh’s force of attraction. This offers a window of opportunity for addressing the conducive environments that permitted Daesh’s success in widely...
Roque, Paula Christina
Angola is experiencing an existential transition that will change the way power in the country is reconfigured and projected. The pragmatism and survivalist instinct that have defined its internal and foreign policies will be sorely tested under the reins of the new President, a financial crisis and regional turmoil. After almost four decades of rule under President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, the country inaugurated a new president in September 2017.
Lazarević, Milena; Stratulat , Corina
One of the lessons learnt from previous enlargement waves is the need to complement the politics of conditionality – that is, Brussel’s traditional ‘carrot and stick approach’ – with the politics of pressure – whereby the governments in the Balkan countries are ‘squeezed’ between civil society demands and an uncompromising European Commission.
If context is everything, what are we to make of a British prime minister making a speech on Europe in a
gloomy cloister of a Florentine church? Her audience was the Westminster press lobby, flown out and back
on fat expenses, and a clutch of patronised and bewildered Italian dignitaries. Surely the event cannot have
been part of the government's charm offensive launched to demonstrate that Britain's Rolls-Royce
diplomacy will continue effortlessly after Brexit? Indeed, the spectacle in the cloister (probably the
brainchild of a Tory-boy press officer) was pretty desperate. Florence has other more dignified venues,
notably the European University Institute at Badia Fiesolana. Compare...
Paul, Amanda; Schmidt, Juliane
Relations between Germany and Turkey have reached an all-time low. With escalating rhetoric and mutual recriminations, the relationship that Berlin and Ankara have maintained for decades has entered unchartered waters. In this Policy Brief, Amanda Paul and Juliane Schmidt argue that Germany and the EU need to think carefully and strategically about how to shape their future relationship with Turkey. Following the declarations made by Chancellor Merkel in the run-up to the recent federal election, it remains to be seen to what extent the new German government will re-orientate its Turkey policy. For possibly the first time in their relationship,...
Kaczmarski, Marcin; Jakóbowski, Jakub
Despite China’s growing political and economic involvement in Central and Eastern Europe
(CEE), Beijing has not succeeded in making an attractive offer to the region’s EU member
states – who make up the majority of the participants in the ‘16+1’ format. The financing
model proposed by China, based on loans and favouritism towards Chinese companies, has
proved to be unsuitable to local conditions. Therefore, the much-discussed infrastructure cooperation
has not even started. Consequently, Beijing has failed to obtain the political tools
which could have weakened policy coherence at the European level, or even divided the EU.
In this context, the allegations appearing in the public debate that...
Contrary to conventional wisdom, this paper contends that the excessive development of capital market finance has been one of the catalysts behind the crises and scandals that have unfolded over the past 15 years. In particular, innovative debt transactions have proven instrumental to the creation of excessive levels of risk-taking and leverage, which have had catastrophic consequences, both at the firm and systemic level.
While much regulation has been enacted in response to these crises, the way in which debt transactions in capital markets are designed and entered into remains largely unregulated. Moreover, regulators have so far neglected the role that...
The statutes of the European Central Bank (ECB) stipulate that it should have recourse to national
central banks (NCBs) to carry out monetary policy operations. Such a structure would not be a
problem if these operations were all identical across member states and if the resulting profits and
losses were shared. But this is not the case today. In this sense, the euro area no longer has a ‘single’
There is little one can do about this situation, except to wait until the government purchase
programme ends and is then reversed.
However, two steps could be undertaken already now: i) the granting of emergency liquidity
Véron, Nicolas.; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin
The sequence of crisis and policy responses after mid-2007 was a gradual recognition of the unsustainability of the euro-area policy framework. The bank-sovereign vicious circle was first observed in 2009 and became widely acknowledged in the course of 2011 and early 2012. The most impactful initiative has been the initiation of a banking union in mid-2012, but this remains incomplete and needs strengthening.
This article examines the time path of broadband adoption for households in areas that are offered broadband service for the first time and the socioeconomic characteristics of broadband users generally. Using cross-sectional data on broadband take-up and socioeconomic characteristics of small areas in Ireland, linked to GIS data on ADSL availability over time, I find that local penetration growth rates are elevated immediately after service is offered. Local growth rates then decline towards the national average, reaching it after about 3.5 years. The article also includes estimates of the effect of various household characteristics on adoption, finding effects broadly consistent...
This paper first considers the origins of the Irish economic crisis. It discusses where the policy failures occurred, to what extent they were foreseeable, and how certain key financial institutions performed in the run up to the crisis. In the light of this analysis the paper then considers what institutional changes could feasibly be implemented which would strengthen policy making for the future.
Leahy, Eimear; Lyons, Sean; Tol, Richard S.J.
In this paper we examine the distributional effects of Value Added Tax (VAT) in Ireland. Using the 2004/2005 Household Budget Survey, we assess the amount of VAT that households pay as a proportion of weekly disposable income. We measure VAT payments by equivalised income decile, households of different composition and different household sizes. The current system is highly regressive. With the use of a micro-simulation model we also estimate the impact of changing the VAT rate on certain groups of items and the associated change in revenue. We also consider how the imposition of a flat rate across all goods...
Bargain, Olivier; Gonzalez, Libertad; Keane, Claire; Ozcan, Berkay
If participation in the labour market helps to secure women's outside options in the case of divorce/separation, an increase in the perceived risk of marital dissolution may accelerate the increase in female labour supply. This simple prediction has been tested in the literature using time and/or spatial variation in divorce legislation (e.g., across US states), leading to mixed results. In this paper, we suggest testing this hypothesis by exploiting a more radical policy change, i.e., the legalization of divorce. In Ireland, the right to divorce was introduced in 1996, followed by an acceleration of marriage breakdown rates. We use this...
O'Connell, Philip J.; Williams, James
This paper reports the results of the first nationally representative survey of the incidence of workplace bullying in the Republic of Ireland. The results are based on analysis of a sample of over 5,200 individuals in paid work outside the home. Overall, 7% of per persons in the work-place report that they experienced bullying in the 6 months preceding the survey. Bullying victimisation was far more common among employees than among the self-employed, and victimisation rates were higher among women than men. Almost 3% of those at work report that they experienced bullying either daily or several times per week...
This is the sixth in a series of National Reports to be published as part of the new phase of the New Pact for Europe project.* According to the French NPE Reflection Group, France did have a leading role in Europe, but today its position seems to be weakened. As one of the founding members, it delivered many heavy-weight politicians who were instrumental in the European integration process. However, lack of political leadership, and the failure, in recent years, of the Franco-German tandem, together with the debt crisis, the migration crisis and the lack of transparency, created the impression the...
Theresa May has held her eagerly awaited Florence speech, signalling some willingness to compromise on a key sticking point of the Article 50 negotiations, the financial obligations of the United Kingdom’s membership, as well as finally recognising that a time-limited “implementation” deal will be necessary. Furthermore, she signalled some more softening on citizens’ rights and on the role of European regulation.
Olszański, Tadeusz A.
The war with Russia which began in 2014 has triggered serious changes in the way history is thought about by the Ukrainian public, especially in opinion-forming circles. The liberal reflection critical about the nationalist tradition initiated somewhat earlier has been rejected since wartime requires heroic narratives above all. Ukraine also had to counteract the propaganda offensive from Russia which wanted to equate the Ukrainian patriotic movement with radical nationalism seen at the time of World War II, which it branded as ‘fascist’.
Egenhofer, Christian.; Stroia, Cristian
The Central and South-Eastern Europe Gas Connectivity (CESEC) initiative brings together EU and
non-EU countries under a single regional framework promoting energy policy cooperation. All
states in the region share common challenges in the areas of energy security and energy market
development that can best be addressed via a joint regional approach.
To date, the initiative has been a major political success for all those participating – the European
Commission, the member states and the Energy Community contracting parties – which together
have taken ambitious steps towards the creation of a regional energy security framework on the
back of a regional energy market. Essential elements include the...
Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech in Florence on September 22nd was intended to be a milestone in the Brexit process, aimed at getting agreement with the EU to open negotiations over the future relationship, going beyond the current first phase that concerns only the withdrawal agreement. The main new content was a proposed transition period (yet to be negotiated) that would follow the formal withdrawal expected on 29 March 2019, under which much of the status quo for the UK as member state would be continued for ‘around two years’, giving more time for the negotiations over the future relationship....
Beblavý , Miroslav
In his State of the Union speech, the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker
touched upon the hot political issue of posted workers. He mentioned two proposals:
-New rules on posting of workers following the principle “Workers should earn the
same pay for the same work in the same place”
-Creation of a European Labour Authority to enforce “all EU rules on labour
mobility… in a fair, simple and effective way”