Paul, Amanda; Sammut, Dennis
Nikol Pashinyan’s meteoric rise to the leadership of Armenia has happened unexpectedly. Widespread discontent with the administration of former president Serzh Sargsyan, youth's frustration with corrupt practices, and Pashinyan's sheer audacity turned what looked like an impossible task into a reality. A protest movement that started quite modestly in late March, focusing primarily on trying to block the appointment of Sargsyan as the country's new prime minister with full executive powers, eventually forced the governing Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) to acquiesce to Pashinyan's demands.
The future of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is closely linked with the discussion on the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2021-2027. As the CAP is one of the biggest recipients of EU money, any changes to the amount of funding available and criteria for its use will have major implications for the sector. With the upcoming negotiations on the next EU budget, there is an opportunity to make European farming more sustainable. The new CAP should mirror the climate ambitions of the SDGs and the Paris Agreement by creating new incentives for farmers to align their practices....
The year 2019 will be an election year in Ukraine, with a presidential election in the spring and a parliamentary election in the autumn. The short timeframe and the order in which these two elections will be held increase the chances of the winner of the presidential election forming the largest faction in parliament. The first phase of election campaigning has already begun, with Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko as the main contenders, but opinion polls are inconclusive. The atmosphere surrounding the campaign is one of mistrust on the part of voters in the authorities and the political class. Ukraine’s...
As NATO has returned its focus to collective defence since 2014, very short, short-range and
medium-range surface-based air defence has become a desirable capability. Germany, which
has been recalibrating the Bundeswehr to resume participation in conventional military
conflicts, is in the process of re-creating air defence capabilities. In 2018–2019, the German
Defence Ministry is expected to take decisions regarding two crucial air defence programmes:
the NNbS and the TLVS.
The banking system of the euro area can be stabilised even without creating a new ‘safe’ asset. The real problem is the concentration of risk on bank’s balance sheets in the form of large holdings of bonds of the home sovereign. Diversification should be the first priority. But the current regulatory framework hinders diversification of sovereign risk because existing investment funds of euro area government bonds are treated as if they were much less safe and liquid than the individual government bonds themselves.
Matching the EU institutions’ positive rhetoric about democratic ideals with their practical administrative actions is ultimately what the European Ombudsman is about.
The European Commission has now tabled ‘enabling’ legislation for the creation of ‘SBBS’, sovereign bond-backed securities. The official purpose is to allow financial markets to create a ‘safe asset’, which should be used by banks instead of government bonds.
The root causes of the current crisis in Italy are domestic; they have little to do with fiscal rules or a lack of risk sharing. This means that the crisis needs to be resolved domestically.
Ferrer, Jorge Núñez; Alcidi, Cinzia.
Despite its sharper focus on long-term growth, the EU budget is still not designed to fulfil a stabilisation function. More can be done.
This contribution offers an eight-point analysis of a Plan adopted by the Lega Party for Italy’s exit from the euro that seems designed to confirm Germany’s worst fears.
Hartmann, Philipp; Huang, Haizhou; Schoenmaker , Dirk
Understanding the changing role of central banks and the novel policies they
have pursued recently is absolutely essential for analysing many economic,
financial and political issues, ranging from financial regulation and crisis, to
exchange rate dynamics and regime changes, and QE and prolonged low interest
rates. This book features contributions by many of the world’s leading experts on
central banking, providing in accessible essays a fascinating review of today’s
key policy and research issues for central banks. Luminaries including Stephen
Cecchetti, Takatoshi Ito, Anil Kashyap, Mervyn King, Donald Kohn, Otmar Issing,
Hyun Shin and William White are joined by Charles Goodhart of the London
School of Economics, whose many...
The Article 50 secession treaty must be accompanied by a Political Declaration outlining the framework for the future relationship between the UK and EU. Drafting the Political Declaration is now an urgent necessity. The UK has one chance - preferably in its just announced White Paper and before the June European Council - to contribute to its drafting. Mrs May’s efforts to offer a serious prospectus for the future have been unconvincing, lacking detail especially on governance.
There are essentially three parts to the future relationship: economic partnership; security partnership; and governance. All three can only be accommodated inside an association...
Paul, Amanda; Seyrek, Demir Murat
On 24 June, Turkey will hold snap presidential and parliamentary elections, almost 17 months earlier than planned. Their outcome is bound to fundamentally transform Turkish politics from a parliamentary system to a presidential governance model, which gives the president sweeping powers.
President Erdoğan announced early elections with the expectation that it would boost his and the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) chances of winning, while also taking the opposition by surprise. However, Turkey’s historically fragmented opposition has swiftly mobilised. For the first time, it has united. Political parties from different backgrounds and ideologies are coming together with one common aim...
The EU-Western Balkans summit held on 17 May in Sofia – the first such event since 2003 –
is one example of the EU’s increasing interest in the Balkan states which aspire to membership.
On 6 February, the European Commission presented its new strategy for its Western
Balkans policy. Its desire to become more closely involved in the region has also been indicated
by visits from the EC President Jean-Claude Juncker and the head of the European Council
Donald Tusk to all the countries in the region during recent months. This activity on the part
of EU institutions has been accompanied by actions targeted at the...
Chiacchio, Franchesco; Darvas, Zsolt; Efstathiou, Konstantinos; Raposo, Inês Goncalves; Wolff, Guntram B.
The European Union significantly increased its funding for migration, asylum and integration policies in the wake of the increased inflow of asylum seekers in 2015. This study provides an overview, an analysis and an evaluation of the use of these funds, based on publicly available information, insights from interviews with various stakeholders and a survey of non-governmental organisations.
The paper also offers recommendations on how to improve the use of funds and allocation keys to Member States. The authors argue for an increase in funding in support of member states as well as for EU agencies such as Frontex and EASO...
SVEN BISCOP gelooft niet dat de Navo-missie in Afghanistan zoals ze nu loopt veel resultaat zal opleveren. Pas wanneer de missie een duidelijke strategie heeft en een haalbaar doel, is het voor België aangewezen om zijn deel van het werk op zich te nemen.
Gorecki, Paul K; Lyons, Sean; Tol, Richard S.J.
Under European Union proposals for CO2 emission reduction between 2013 and 2020, a Member State can transfer to another Member State the right to use its unused Clean Development Mechanism (“CDMs”) credits. The paper addresses three issues in relation to these CDM Warrants (“CDMW”). First, how should the Member State treat the CDMW in making decisions concerning emission reduction? The price of the property right is an important signal for a Member State in deciding the level of domestic abatement compared to trading in CDMWs. In other words, a shadow price for CDMWs should be used in formulating the emission...
There are many things policy-makers can do to fight fake news and propaganda, but they must be careful to ensure they don’t find themselves mimicking the behaviour of authoritarian states.
Akgüç, Mehtap; Beblavý, Miroslav; Simonelli, Felice
European air travel has witnessed a tremendous evolution since the late 1990s following the liberalisation process, with many new entrants to the market. Several of these new entrants are low-cost carriers (LCCs), offering lower fares and thereby making air transport accessible to a larger number of people. This broader access and increased connectivity have the potential to bring people and regions closer together in Europe.
Against this background, the objective of the current report is to understand to what extent, and through which channels, LCCs have contributed and can contribute to European integration. Relying on a mixed set of approaches including...