With his reckless imposition of import tariffs, President Trump has set in motion a nightmare scenario of tit-for-tat trade wars that the world has not seen for generations.
Savage, Michael; Callan, Tim
Comprehensive modelling of the impact of taxes and tax policy options requires data on the impact at micro-level of both direct and indirect taxes. There are, however, limits on the amount of data that can be gathered by any one survey. With some exceptions, most notably the Living Costs and Food Survey (LCF) in the UK, most national expenditure surveys are not suitable for use in detailed modelling of the direct tax and welfare system. This makes approaches which impute expenditure data into detailed income surveys of considerable interest. In this paper, we assess the sensitivity of the distributional effects...
Curtis, John; Devitt, Niamh; Whelan, Adele
The common EU framework for assessing the energy performance of residential buildings and awarding Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) is an important resource
in the context of informing effective policy measures to improve energy efficiency. However, properties that have been assessed to-date are not likely to be fully representative of the entire housing stock and therefore provide a faulty baseline from which to devise policy actions. The paper presents a methodology to estimate the energy performance of all residential properties and,
combined with census data, identifies what distinguishes the most energy inefficient properties, whether it is location, ownership, age or other...
Di Cosmo, Valeria; Hyland, Marie
This paper uses data from the World Input Output Database (WIOD) to examine channels through which CO2 emissions are embodied within and imported into the European production process. We apply a metric to calculate sectoral emission intensity and thus rank countries and sectors in the EU in terms of their emission intensity, and look at the evolution of patterns of emission intensity in 2005 and in 2009. We use an input-output price model to simulate the effect that a rise in the price of EU-ETS allowances, from $17 to $25 /tonne, would have on the final price of goods in...
Hwang, Chang; Reynes, Frederic; Tol, Richard S.J.
Uncertainty plays a significant role in evaluating climate policy, and fat‐tailed uncertainty may dominate policy advice. Should we make our utmost effort to prevent the
arbitrarily large impacts of climate change under deep uncertainty? In order to answer to this question we propose an new way of investigating the impact of (fat‐tailed) uncertainty on optimal climate policy: the curvature of carbon tax against the uncertainty. We find that the optimal carbon tax increases as the uncertainty about climate sensitivity increases, but it does not accelerate as implied by Weitzman’s Dismal Theorem. We find the same result in a wide variety...
This paper considers Ireland’s banking crisis from the perspective of behavioural economics. It assesses whether known biases in judgement and decision-making were instrumental in the development and severity of the crisis. It investigates evidence that key decision-makers, including consumers, businesspeople, bankers and regulators, as well as parties such as civil servants, politicians, academics and journalists, were influenced by seven specific phenomena which have been identified previously via experiments and field studies. It concludes that evidence is consistent with the influence of these established phenomena. Ireland’s long boom, rapid financial integration and lack of relevant past experience may have increased the...
Tol, Richard S.J.
This paper uses a vote-counting procedure to estimate the probability density function of the total economic impact as a parabolic function of global warming. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of climate change up to 3ºC, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3ºC most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7ºC may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year.
Tol, Richard S.J.; Gorecki, Paul K.
Climate change is an important problem. It would be desirable to have legislation that would put Ireland on a low-cost and equitable trajectory to a zero-carbon economy. The draft Climate Change Response Bill 2010 will not achieve that. The exact emission reduction targets for 2020 are ambiguous, but considerably more ambitious than Ireland’s obligations under EU legislation. EU legislation severely constrains the options for domestic climate policy so that the extra emission reduction would fall almost exclusively on agriculture, households, small and medium enterprises, and transport. The target in the draft bill for 2020 would require draconian policies. It would...
de Bruin, Kelly C.; Dellink, Rob B.; Tol, Richard S.J.
What role could a property tax play in broadening the Irish tax base? Could a recurrent tax on immovable property provide greater stability than a system of stamp duties, while removing obstacles to mobility? What about the relationship between a property tax and ability to pay – should or could the bills facinThis paper investigates the economic incentives of countries to cooperate on international adaptation financing. Adaptation is generally implicitly incorporated in the climate change damage functions as used in Integrated Assessment Models. We replace the implicit decision on adaptation with explicit adaptation in a multi-regional setting by using an...
Commins, Nicola; Nolan, Anne
Rapid economic and demographic change in the Greater Dublin Area over the last decade, with associated increases in car dependence and congestion, has focused policy on encouraging more sustainable forms of travel. In this context, knowledge of current travel patterns and their determinants is crucial. Here we concentrate on travel for a specific journey purpose, namely the journey to work. We employ cross-section micro-data from the 2006 Census of Population to analyse the influence of travel and supply-side characteristics, as well as demographic and socio-economic characteristics on the choice of mode of transport to work in the Greater Dublin Area.
Mayor, Karen; Tol, Richard S.J.
We use a model of international and domestic tourist numbers and flows to investigate the effect of various climate policy instruments implemented in Europe on arrivals and emissions for the countries concerned. We find that these schemes do not fulfil their desired effects. The introduction of aviation into the European Trading system results in a fall in the number of tourists travelling into the EU in favour of other destinations. It also causes a significant welfare loss with only a small reduction in emissions. The flight taxes in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom result in different substitution effects across...
Fitz Gerald, J.; Keeney, M.; Scott, S.
This paper investigates pricing power, an important criterion for identifying sectors that would be vulnerable under environmental tax reform. Environmental tax reform, defined here as introduction of carbon taxes alongside reductions in labour taxes, could bear heavily on sectors that are energy intensive and highly traded, in particular if their options for adapting technology are limited. However, a sector with pricing power has less to fear as, rather than having to conform to the world price, it can set its price to accommodate a tax mark-up.
Tol, Richard S.J.
Rich countries have emitted most of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, while poor countries will suffer most from climate change. Rich countries have therefore committed to help poor countries adapt. However, this is financed from the general development budget, and hence may do more harm than good. Furthermore, development aid also finances emission reduction. These aspects of climate policy need to be overhauled. Development assistance should consider the impact of climate change, and reduce emissions where it can, but this can be achieved by marginal adjustments to current practice.
McCloughan, Patrick; Lyons, Sean; Batt, William
This paper presents robust panel data econometric evidence suggesting that more effective competition policy curtails the exercise of market power because countries in which competition policy is judged to be more effective are characterised by lower market price-cost margins, controlling for other factors, including market growth, import penetration and spare capacity. The measure of competition policy effectiveness incorporated into our analysis is the annual survey-based ratings of national competition authorities (NCAs) produced by Global Competition Review (GCR). Our findings imply a role for competition in enhancing economic competitiveness and that government should continue to support NCAs in enforcing competition policy.
Callan, Tim; Smeeding, Tim; Tsakloglou, Panos
Empirical studies of inequality and poverty are usually based on disposable cash incomes, disregarding incomes in-kind (non-cash incomes). Since individuals also derive utility from the consumption of goods and services provided in-kind monetary income is not always a good indicator of an individual’s utility or “command over resources”. Thus, distributional analysis based on cash incomes may be seriously biased. Inclusion of non-cash incomes (arising from private sources or from public provision of services such as health, housing and education) may allow for better targeting and allocation of resources in fighting poverty and social exclusion. The present paper focuses on non-cash...
Barrett, Alan; Duffy, David
Ireland has experienced a remarkable change in its migratory patterns in recent years and has moved from experiencing large-scale emigration to receiving significant inflows. In this paper, we use data from a nationally representative sample of immigrants and natives drawn in 2005 to assess the occupational attainment of immigrants in Ireland relative to natives. It is found that immigrants, on average, are less likely to be in high-level occupations controlling for factors such as age and education. When looked at by year of arrival, it appears as if immigrants who arrived more recently have lower occupational attainment relative to earlier...
Smyth, Emer; Darmody, Merike
This article examines the processes influencing the choice of non-traditional subjects by girls in lower secondary education in the Republic of Ireland. In particular, we focus on the traditionally ‘male’ technological subjects, namely, Materials Technology (Wood), Metalwork and Technical Graphics. Analyses are based on detailed case-studies of twelve secondary schools, placing them in the context of national patterns of subject take-up. Strong gender differentiation persists in the take-up of these technological subjects. Commonalities are evident across schools in the way in which the subjects are constructed as ‘male’. However, some students, both female and male, actively contest these labels, and...
Bargain, Olivier; Callan, Tim
To assess the impact of tax-benefit policy changes on income distribution over time, we suggest
a decomposition methodology based on counterfactual simulations. First, it provides an absolute measure
of the impact of tax-benefit changes on inequality, which combines changes in policy structure (rules,
rates, etc.) and changes in monetary parameters (benefit amounts, tax bands, etc.) against a
distributionally-neutral benchmark, i.e., a situation where monetary parameters are nominally adjusted in
line with income growth. We apply this measure to analyze the effect of recent policy changes in twelve
European countries. Secondly, we focus on France and Ireland to assess the relative role of policy
changes compared to changes...
Fitz Gerald, John; Tol, Richard S.J.
A simulation model of international tourist flows is used to estimate the impact of including carbon dioxide emissions from aviation fuels in the European Trading System. The effect on global carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation is minimal: -0.01% at current permit prices, and –0.13% for the aggressive climate policy advocated by the Stern Review. In the latter case, total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels would fall by 0.004%, and total greenhouse gas emissions by 0.002%. Tourist numbers in Europe would fall by up to 0.6%, and would increase in the rest of the world. If the permits are grandparented,...
Bradley, John; Morgenroh, Edgar; Untiedt, Gerhard
The structural fund interventions play a crucial role in improving the social and economic cohesion of the EU. A particular focus of the structural funds is on Objective 1 regions that lag behind to the extent that their GDP per capita is below 75 per cent of the EU average. The amount of investment that is funded though the Structural Funds by the EU is substantial and consequently EU legislation requires the appraisal of the structural funds. However, while systematic monitoring and evaluation frameworks are available at the national level and at the project level, a rigorous and systematic method...