Martínez-Galán, Enrique; Fontoura, Maria Paula
This paper addresses the relation between international trade and employment in Portugal with regard to the labour content of trade in intermediates. It considers both the overall level of employment and labour disaggregated by skills (high-skill, medium-skill and low-skill). The assessment makes use of the newly developed internationally linked inputoutput (IO) database named World Input-Output Database (WIOD), complemented with the Socio-Economic Accounts (SEA) for skill-types of labour. The period analysed – 1995-2009 - is the longest possible taking into account the two databases used. The amount of labour required to produce imported intermediates (exported intermediates) is taken as a proxy...
Afonso, António; Silva, Jorge
We study the effects of the euro area monetary policy on the institutional sectors in Portugal during the period 2000:4-2015:4. Our results show that the single monetary policy affected some variables that are proxies for the funding of each institutional sector of the economy: general government, other monetary financial institutions, non-financial corporations, households and the external sector. The period of the economic and financial adjustment programme influenced all institutional sectors, and financial integration in the euro area had an effect on the funding for the economy: there was a reduction of long term-to-GDP ratio, external funding to the Portuguese other...
Afonso, António; Leão, Emanuel Reis; Tiny, Dilson; Bhimjee, Diptes C. P.
The Global Financial Crisis has typically led to a significant widening of fiscal positions (i.e., higher budget deficits and public debt). We address the sustainability of public finances in Portuguese-speaking African countries (PALOP), through adequate econometric testing. Our findings for the period 1975-2015 suggest that most of the PALOP have compromised the sustainability of their corresponding fiscal positions, leading these economies to be set on unsustainable public finance trajectories.
Pimentel, Inácia; St.Aubyn, Miguel; Ribeiro, Nuno
In this paper we test the macroeconomic impact of investment in public-private
partnerships, public and private investment in Portugal through a VAR model with four
variables: public and private investment, PPP investment and GDP, to the period 1998-
2013. An assessment of crowding-in / crowding-out effects of investment in PPPs is
carried out. We also proceed to the calculation of macroeconomic rates of return on
investment in PPP, public investment and private investment. The results show that
public and private investment has a positive effect in GDP while investment in PPP
reduces the Portuguese GDP. In what concerns to crowding-in/crowding-out effects an
increase in PPP investment crowds-out both...
Afonso, António; Kazemi, Mina
We assess the determinants of long-term sovereign yield spreads using a panel of 10 Euro
area countries over the period 1999.01–2016.07 notably regarding the ECB (standard and
non-standard) quantitative easing measures. Our findings indicate that the international risk,
the bid-ask spread and real effective exchange rate increased the 10-year sovereign bond
yield spreads. Moreover, quantitative easing, notably Longer-term Refinancing Operations
(LTROs), Targeted LTROs and the Securities Market Program decreased the yield spreads.
Galli, Emma; Rizzo, Ilde; Scaglioni, Carla
In this paper, we aim at evaluating from an economic perspective the recent Italian legislation on
transparency to investigate whether the potentialities of transparency as a tool to improve
performance and integrity are fully exploited. We first construct a synthetic indicator (CTI) consisting
of two sub-indicators, CTI Integrity and CTI Performance, which are able to describe in numerical
terms the overall degree of transparency of Italian public administrations as well as the two different
aspects of the public activity’s transparency. Then, using as a sample of Italian municipalities, we
address the question whether there is a relation between the fulfillment of transparency obligations
and both the institutional...
Afonso, António; Huart, Florence; Jalles, João Tovar; Stanek, Piotr
We assess the sustainability of the current account (CA) balance, net international
investment position (NIIP) and net external debt (NED) in a sample of EU countries using
two complementary approaches. First, we employ both time-series and panel-data
stationarity tests of current account balance-to-GDP ratios as well as cointegration tests
of exports and imports of goods and services. Second, we assess the level of trade balance
that stabilizes the NIIP and the NED. We find that there is sustainability of the CA balance
mainly in a few surplus countries whereas there is more concern about the sustainability
of the NIIP or NED in countries with a credit position...
An attempt will be made to study the impacts of government policies on the distribution of income, paying close attention to the corresponding response of the different macroeconomic aggregates and balances. The Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) will be chosen as the working instrument. A numerical version of the SAM, constructed from the System of National Accounts (SNA), will serve as the basis for the construction of an algebraic version of the same matrix for Portugal. This methodological choice was linked to the fact that, underlying the SAM, there are interrelated subsystems that, in the numerical version of the matrix, provide...
Based on the country's National Accounts, an aggregate Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) will be constructed for the Portuguese economy. The full consonance between the two will be demonstrated by identifying both the items and balances of the various internal accounts of the System of National Accounts in the constructed SAM. The balance of the government budget and the balance of payments will also be identified. Blocks of sub-matrices with common characteristics will be identified and described in terms of the national accounting transactions that are included in each of them. The SAM will be shown as a complete account of...
Based on the principle that the study of a sector should be carried out under a general equilibrium approach, and moving beyond the context of partial equilibrium, the Social Accounting Matrix, usually referred to as SAM, is one possibility for meeting such needs, in that it provides a complete account of the circular flows in the economy. The economic flows associated with households, enterprises, government and other institutions from 1995 to 2000 will be analysed from aggregated SAMs, based on the country's national accounts statistics. Accounting multipliers will be calculated to facilitate the study of the effects resulting from changes...
Aggregated Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) will be constructed for the Portuguese economy from 1995 to 2000, based on the country's national accounts statistics. The economic flows associated with households, enterprises, government and other institutions will be analysed, as well as their evolution, whilst accounting multipliers will be calculated to facilitate the study of the effects resulting from changes in household income. Therefore, SAMs are modelled and structural path analysis will be used for the decomposition of the calculated multipliers. At the end, the general guidelines will be established for following the study of income distribution and poverty in Portugal.