Mostrando recursos 1 - 7 de 7

  1. Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: Evidence from Austrian Firm-level Data

    Badinger, Harald; Url, Thomas
    This paper provides an economic assessment of export credit guarantee commitments by the Austrian export credit agency, using firm-level data on a cross-section of 178 Austrian exporting firms for the year 2008. In a first step, we estimate the relative importance of various determinants of export guarantee usage. Results suggest that the most crucial determinants are: firm size, whether or not the firm is part of a multinational enterprise, exposure to revenue risk, and R&D intensity. In a second step, we investigate the effects of export guarantees on export performance. Identification is achieved by using as instruments the exogenous determinants...

  2. "Smarte" Finanzpolitik für Österreichs Kommunen: Neue Politik auf bekannten Wegen

    Kostal, Thomas

  3. Scenario Tree Generation and Multi-Asset Financial Optimization Problems

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex
    We compare two popular scenario tree generation methods in the context of financial optimization: Moment matching and scenario reduction. Using a simple problem with a known analytic solution, we find that moment matching - accompanied by a check to ensure absence of arbitrage opportunities - replicates this solution precisely. On the other hand, even if the scenario trees generated by scenario reduction are arbitrage-free, the solutions to the approximate optimization problem represented by the reduced tree are biased and highly variable. These results hold for correlated and uncorrelated asset returns, as well as for normal and non-normal returns. (authors' abstract)

  4. The Shallow or the Deep Ecological Economics Movement?

    Spash, Clive L.
    Ecological economics and its policy recommendations have become overwhelmed by economic valuation, shadow pricing, sustainability measures, and squeezing Nature into the commodity boxes of goods, services and capital in order to make it part of mainstream economic, financial and banking discourses. There are deeper concerns which touch upon the understanding of humanity in its various social, psychological, political and ethical facets. The relationship with Nature proposed by the ecological economics movement has the potential to be far reaching. However, this is not the picture portrayed by surveying the amassed body of articles from this journal or by many of those claiming affiliation. A shallow movement, allied to a...

  5. Influencing elections with statistics: targeting voters with logistic regression trees

    Rusch, Thomas; Lee, Ilro; Hornik, Kurt; Jank, Wolfgang; Zeileis, Achim
    In political campaigning substantial resources are spent on voter mobilization, that is, on identifying and influencing as many people as possible to vote. Campaigns use statistical tools for deciding whom to target ("microtargeting"). In this paper we describe a nonpartisan campaign that aims at increasing overall turnout using the example of the 2004 US presidential election. Based on a real data set of 19,634 eligible voters from Ohio, we introduce a modern statistical framework well suited for carrying out the main tasks of voter targeting in a single sweep: predicting an individual's turnout (or support) likelihood for a particular cause, party or candidate as well as data-driven voter segmentation....

  6. Influencing elections with statistics: targeting voters with logistic regression trees

    Rusch, Thomas; Lee, Ilro; Hornik, Kurt; Jank, Wolfgang; Zeileis, Achim
    In political campaigning substantial resources are spent on voter mobilization, that is, on identifying and influencing as many people as possible to vote. Campaigns use statistical tools for deciding whom to target ("microtargeting"). In this paper we describe a nonpartisan campaign that aims at increasing overall turnout using the example of the 2004 US presidential election. Based on a real data set of 19,634 eligible voters from Ohio, we introduce a modern statistical framework well suited for carrying out the main tasks of voter targeting in a single sweep: predicting an individual's turnout (or support) likelihood for a particular cause, party or candidate as well as data-driven voter segmentation....

  7. Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment

    Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus; Fernandez-Amador, Octavio
    We propose the analysis of the dynamics of the standard deviation of business cycles across euro area countries in order to evaluate the patterns of cyclical convergence in the European Monetary Union for the period 1960-2008. We identify significant business cycle divergence taking place in the mid-eighties, followed by a persistent convergence period spanning most of the nineties. This convergent episode finishes roughly with the birth of the European Monetary Union. We show that a hypothetical euro area including all the new members of the recent enlargement rounds does not imply a sizeable decrease in the optimality of the currency union. Finally, the European synchronization differential with...

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