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Nomenclatura Unesco > (53) Ciencias Económicas > (5302) Econometría
(5302.01) Indicadores económicos (5302.02) Modelos econométricos
(5302.03) Proyección económica (5302.04) Estadística económica
(5302.05) Series cronológicas económicas

Mostrando recursos 1 - 20 de 1,385

1. Institucional: Departamento de Economía - Revista Institucional de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas
El Departamento de Economía, desde su creación en 1953, viene realizando actividades de docencia, de investigación y de transferencia. Dentro del área de Economía de la Facultad, funcionan, además, los siguientes postgrados, institutos y actividades: la Maestría en Economía, la Maestría en Finanzas Públicas Provinciales y Municipales, el Doctorado en Economía, el Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS), el Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, el Laboratorio de Economía Matemática y Econometría y la Revista Económica. Mas información: www.depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar.

2. Credible managerial vision - Ferreira, Daniel
We develop a model in which managers choose whether or not to reveal their “vision” for the future of their companies. Visionary managers are valuable because they generate incentives for workers to develop profitable innovations for the firm. However, managerial vision is not necessarily credible. After workers have invested in developing ideas, there is no a priori reason for a manager to keep her earlier promises when new contingencies arise and make it profitable to change the firm’s strategic direction. We show that credible managerial vision will arise in equilibrium when managers have career concerns. In order to credibly implement their visions, managers issue public “mission statements”...

3. Controlling inflation in a cointegrated vector autoregressive model with an applicaton to US data - Johansen, Soren; Juselius, Katarina

4. Two heads may not be better than one : corporate board structure, managerial self-dealing,and common agency - Carrasco, Vinícios
This paper compares the effects on corporate performance and managerial self-dealing in a situation in which the CEO reports to a single Board that is responsible for both monitoring management and establishing performance targets to an alternative in which the CEO reports to two Boards, each responsible for a different task. The equilibrium set of the common agency game induced by the dual board structure is fully characterized. Compared to a single board, a dual board demands less aggressive performance targets from the CEO, but exerts more monitoring. A consequence of the first feature is that the CEO always exerts less effort toward production with a dual board. The effect...

5. Beyond common priors - Barelli, Paulo
One property (called action-consistency) that is implicit in the common prior assumption (CPA) is identified and shown to be the driving force of the use of the CPA in a class of well-known results. In particular, we show that Aumann (1987)’s Bayesian characterization of correlated equilibrium, Aumann and Brandenburger (1995)’s epistemic conditions for Nash equilibrium, and Milgrom and Stokey (1982)’s no-trade theorem are all valid without the CPA but with action-consistency. Moreover, since we show that action-consistency is much less restrictive than the CPA, the above results are more general than previously thought, and insulated from controversies around the CPA.

6. Robust monetary policy with the consumption - wealth channel - Araújo, Eurilton
Robust Monetary Policy with the Consumption - Wealth Channel

7. Learning and coordinating in a multilayer network - Lugo, Haydée; San Miguel, Maxi
We introduce a two layer network model for social coordination incorporating two relevant ingredients: a) different networks of interaction to learn and to obtain a pay-off, and b) decision making processes based both on social and strategic motivations. Two populations of agents are distributed in two layers with intralayer learning processes and playing interlayer a coordination game. We find that the skepticism about the wisdom of crowd and the local connectivity are the driving forces to accomplish full coordination of the two populations, while polarized coordinated layers are only possible for all-to-all interactions. Local interactions also allow for full coordination...

8. A One Line Derivation of DCC: Application of a Vector Random Coefficient Moving Average Process - Hafner, Christian M.; McAleer, Michael
One of the most widely-used multivariate conditional volatility models is the dynamic conditional correlation (or DCC) specification. However, the underlying stochastic process to derive DCC has not yet been established, which has made problematic the derivation of asymptotic properties of the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators. The paper shows that the DCC model can be obtained from a vector random coefficient moving average process, and derives the stationarity and invertibility conditions. The derivation of DCC from a vector random coefficient moving average process raises three important issues: (i) demonstrates that DCC is, in fact, a dynamic conditional covariance model of the returns...

9. European Market Portfolio Diversification Strategies across the GFC - Allen, David E.; McAleer, Michael; Powell, Robert J.; Singh, Abhay K.
This paper features an analysis of the effectiveness of a range of portfolio diversification strategies as applied to a set of daily arithmetically compounded returns on a set of ten market indices representing the major European markets for a nine year period from the beginning of 2005 to the end of 2013. The sample period, which incorporates the periods of both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and subsequent European Debt Crisis (EDC), is challenging one for the application of portfolio investment strategies. The analysis is undertaken via the examination of multiple investment strategies and a variety of hold-out periods and...

10. On the Invertibility of EGARCH - Martinet, Guillaume Gaetan; McAleer, Michael
Of the two most widely estimated univariate asymmetric conditional volatility models, the exponential GARCH (or EGARCH) specification can capture asymmetry, which refers to the different effects on conditional volatility of positive and negative effects of equal magnitude, and leverage, which refers to the negative correlation between the returns shocks and subsequent shocks to volatility. However, the statistical properties of the (quasi-) maximum likelihood estimators (QMLE) of the EGARCH parameters are not available under general conditions, but only for special cases under highly restrictive and unverifiable conditions. A limitation in the development of asymptotic properties of the QMLE for EGARCH is...

11. Computation and analysis of multiple structural - Perron, Pierre

12. Trend, unit root and structural change in macroeconomic time series - Perron, Pierre

13. A political-economy theory of trade agreements - Maggi, Giovani, 1964-

14. Co-movement between two processes with local persistence - Lima, Luiz Renato
This paper introduces a residual based test where the null hypothesis of c:&InOvement between two processes with local persistenc~ can be tested, even under the presence of an endogenous regressor. It, therefore, fills in an existing lacuna in econometrics, in which longrun relationships can also be tested if the dependent and independent variables do not have a unit root, but do exhibit local persistence.

15. A unit root test based on partially adaptive estimation - Lima, Luiz Renato
This paper constructs a unit root test baseei on partially adaptive estimation, which is shown to be robust against non-Gaussian innovations. We show that the limiting distribution of the t-statistic is a convex combination of standard normal and DF distribution. Convergence to the DF distribution is obtaineel when the innovations are Gaussian, implying that the traditional ADF test is a special case of the proposed testo Monte Carlo Experiments indicate that, if innovation has heavy tail distribution or are contaminated by outliers, then the proposed test is more powerful than the traditional ADF testo Nominal interest rates (different maturities) are shown to be stationary according to the...

16. Assimetrias nos ciclos económicos : modelação não linear do PIB de alguns países - Zsurkis, Gabriel Florin
Mestrado em Econometria Aplicada e Previsão

17. To cointegrate or not to cointegrate? That's a topological question - Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
We show that for any multivariate I( 1) process which does not cointegrate, it is possible to find another process sufficient1y elose to it where cointegration applies. Closeness is defined in terms of the spectral density matrices of the respective processes in differences, i.e., a metric which takes into account only the information in the (centred) second moments. The result may explain why in practice cointegration is found a bit "too often". Examples developing this point and simulations giving an insight on the metric used are also presented.

18. Multivariate unit root tests - Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
A new multivariate test for the detection ofunit roots is proposed. Use is made ofthe possible correlations between the disturbances of difIerent series, and constrained and unconstrained SURE estimators are employed. The corresponding asymptotic distributions, for the case oftwo series, are obtained and a table with criticai vaIues is generated. Some simulations indivate that the procedure performs better than the existing alternatives.

19. Algunos desarrollos recientes en la metodología de la econometría aplicada - Thomas, John James
Debido a diversos factores o prejuicios que afectan el trabajo econométrico de la mayoría de los economistas, usualmente se siguen secuencias ad-hoc para la construcción de modelos. Esto es, se prueba una serie de ecuaciones que comienza con una forma funcional simple a la cual se le introducen o eliminan otras variables con base en criterios exclusivamente estadísticos (significancia, bondad de ajuste, etc.). En los últimos años, algunos autores han considerado que tales procedimientos pueden conducir a conclusiones espurias. Proponen como alternativa iniciar la serie de pruebas con base en un modelo lo más general posible (que incluya o "encajone"...

20. European Market Portfolio Diversification Strategies across the GFC - Allen, David E.; McAleer, Michael; Powell, Robert J.; Singh, Abhay K.
This paper features an analysis of the effectiveness of a range of portfolio diversification strategies as applied to a set of daily arithmetically compounded returns on a set of ten market indices representing the major European markets for a nine year period from the beginning of 2005 to the end of 2013. The sample period, which incorporates the periods of both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and subsequent European Debt Crisis (EDC), is challenging one for the application of portfolio investment strategies. The analysis is undertaken via the examination of multiple investment strategies and a variety of hold-out periods and...

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