Measurement error and data collection methods: effects on estimates from event history data
- JÃ¤ckle, Annette
Event history data from panel surveys typically display a concentration of transitions at the seam between waves of data collection. This seam effect is likely to bias estimated durations of benefit receipt, attenuate the estimated effects of explanatory factors on conditional exit probabilities and bias estimated duration dependence. This paper uses benefit histories from survey reports and matched administrative records to assess the extent of bias in key estimates. The paper also evaluates the effectiveness at reducing bias of dependent interviewing techniques, where information collected in a previous interview is used to remind the respondent of sources reported previously, or...
The introduction of dependent interviewing on the British Household Panel Survey
- JÃ¤ckle, Annette; Laurie, Heather; Uhrig, S. C. Noah
This paper documents the introduction of dependent interviewing in wave 16 of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). Dependent interviewing is a method of designing questions on longitudinal surveys where substantive information, available to the survey organisation prior to the interview, is used to tailor the wording and routing of questions to the respondents situation or to enable in-interview edit checks. The decision to introduce dependent interviewing in the BHPS was motivated by data quality issues and the paper discusses the reasoning behind this decision. A particular aim was to reduce measurement error that leads to cross-wave inconsistencies and hence...
Constructing consistent work-life histories: a guide for users of the British Household Panel Survey
- Mare, David C.
This paper assembles existing documentation about the data available from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) that can be used to create consistent and complete work-life histories for respondents. It discusses some of the practical and conceptual challenges in deriving consistent work histories from the BHPS data, and documents aspects of the data and its manipulation. It brings together summaries of how other researchers have dealt with the challenges. It also serves to document a newly derived dataset of consistent work life histories. The material in this paper should be seen as a complement to the BHPS Work-Life History files...
Modelling poverty by not modelling poverty: an application of a simultaneous hazards approach to the UK
- Aassve, Arnstein; Burgess, Simon; Dickson, Matt; Propper, Carol
We pursue an economic approach to analysing poverty. This requires a focus on the variables that individuals can influence, such as forming or dissolving a union or having children. We argue that this indirect approach to modelling poverty is the right way to bring economic tools to bear on the issue. In our implementation of this approach, we focus on endogenous demographic and employment transitions as the driving forces behind changes in poverty. We construct a dataset covering event histories over a long window and estimate five simultaneous hazards with unrestricted correlated heterogeneity. The model fits the demographic and poverty...
The gender gap in private pensions
- Bardasi, Elena; Jenkins, Stephen P.
Older women in Britain receive considerably less private pension income than older men, on average. We analyse this differential by examining differences between the sexes both in private pension coverage and in pension income conditional on receipt. Using regression-based decompositions, we show that both gaps are associated mainly with gender differences in returns to personal characteristics rather than with gender differences in personal characteristics per se. In particular, although there are marked differences between elderly men and elderly women in their lifetime employment histories, these differences account for only a small fraction of the overall private pension income gap between...
Examining flexible labour in Europe: the first three waves of the ECHP
- Fisher, Kimberly; Fouarge, Didier; Muffels, Ruud J.A.; Verma, Vijay
This paper uses the European Community Household Panel study (ECHP) to profile labour market experiences in the European Union. Cross-sectional snapshots of labour markets miss out on part of the range of transitions between employment and non-employment. Panel data allows a more accurate assessment of the degree to which experience of unemployment and household work poverty are shared or concentrated among sections of national populations. Indeed, we find that the proportion of months which individuals and which all working age adult members of households spent in unemployment accounts for some variations in labour market experiences. This paper demonstrates the value...
Who marries whom in Great Britain?
- Wing Chan, Tak; Halpin, Brendan
We investigate educational assortative mating, or homogamy, by modelling the hazard of entry to first marriage for a sample of residents of Great Britain. Using marital, and imputed educational, life-histories drawn from the British Household Panel Study, we estimate first a set of competing-risk models where the outcome variable is defined as respectively hypogamy, homogamy and hypergamy. Age, educational participation and cohort have very strong effects, in directions that may be expected. Time gap between leaving education and marrying shows some signs of the hypothesised effect (that a greater time-lag means less homogamy). Cohort differences suggest men are decreasingly likely...
Analysing Incomplete Individual Employment Histories Using Indirect Inference.
- Magnac, T.; Robin, J.M.; Visser, M.
Analysis of Labor Market Histories with Panel Data.
- Visser, M.
historical analysis ; labour market ; data analysis
Labor market data
- Roy H. Webb; William Whelpley
A guide to the use and interpretation of labor market data (employment, unemployment, and wages). Important statistical sources are surveyed and their histories outlined.
Commercial Mortgage Defaults: Proportional Hazards Estimation Using Individual Loan Histories
- Kerry D. Vandell; Walter Barnes; David Hartzell; Dennis Kraft; William Wendt
This paper examines the theory of commercial mortgage default and tests it using a data set of 2,899 loan histories provided by a major multi-line insurance company. A default model is estimated which relates subsequent default incidence and timing to contemporaneous loan term, borrower, property and economic/market conditions. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate a hazard function predicting conditional probability of default over time. Results confirm many expected default relationships, in particular the dominance of loan terms and property value trends over time in affecting default. The effectiveness of the model in discriminating between "good" and "bad" loans is...
Information Costs and the Organization of the Real Estate Brokerage Industry in the U.S. and Great Britain
- Thomas J. Miceli
This paper examines the differing organizations of the residential real estate brokerage industry in the U.S. and Great Britain, and argues that they may be interpreted as alternative solutions to a common set of informational problems. Of particular interest is why the multiple listing service - an arrangement whereby brokers share market information in an effort to exploit the public-good nature of information - is so pervasive in the United States, but is largely absent in Great Britain. Some possible reasons are found in the differing histories of the parent housing markets, as well as other institutional differences. Copyright American...
Estimation of Mortgage Defaults Using Disaggregate Loan History Data
- Kerry D. Vandell; Thomas Thibodeau
This paper addresses, theoretically and empirically, the structure of influences affecting the default option in mortgage contracts. A formal theoretical model recognizes that a number of loan and non-loan related effects beyond equity in the unit could influence the default decision. These include 1) payment levels relative to income, which could displace other investment opportunities or cause a need for borrowing or sale to meet mortgage obligations; 2) current and expected neighborhood and housing market conditions, in particular the expected relative rate of appreciation of the unit and the relative cost of homeownership; 3) economic conditions; 4) wealth; 5) borrower...
From Maoist self-reliance to international oil consumer: a resource-based appraisal of the challenges facing China's petrochemical sector
- Damian Tobin
Resource-based theories of the firm argue that the success of one firm over another is largely due to its resource endowments. Large enterprises have long been recognised as leading sources of learning innovation and growth. This is not just restricted to large firms in developed economies, but also applies to firms in developing economies such as China, where large firms have long and complex histories in the state bureaucracy. Focusing on the case of China's petrochemical sector, this paper argues that even if a sector has a long history in central planning, the critical resources of a firm matter. It...
Fitting Smooth Histories to Rotation Data
- Hanna, Martin S.; Chang, Ted
Consider two tectonic plates diverging at a mid-ocean ridge. Geophysicists are able to estimate the rotation of one plate relative to the other at a discrete sequence of times in the earth's history; also they usually have information as to the likely errors in these rotation estimates. We address the problem of fitting a smooth history to such rotation data. We employ a modification of the method used by Jupp and Kent in their 1987 article dealing with fitting a smooth history to time-labeled points on the surface of the unit sphere in three-dimensional space. They use parallel translation to...
OFFSHORE HYDROCARBON AND SYNTHETIC HYDROCARBON SPILLS IN EASTERN CANADA: THE ISSUE OF FOLLOW-UP AND EXPERIENCE
- GAIL S. FRASER; JOANNE ELLIS
The Environmental Assessment (EA) process should involve the generation of testable predictions generated using clearly stated methods and followed by the collection of environmental monitoring data. Follow-up programs should aim to determine the accuracy of the initial predictions. We examined the follow-up process for six oil and gas extraction projects in eastern Canada with respect to assessing batch spill (< 50 barrels of hydrocarbons and synthetic hydrocarbons) predictions. For three projects we compared oil spill frequency predictions to observed data. All three projects exceeded their predicted frequencies and two projects by ratios (actual to predicted) greater than six. Spill histories...
Italian Diaspora and Foreign Direct Investment: A Cliometric Perspective
- Marina Murat; Barbara Pistoresi; Alberto Rinaldi
Recent economic literature highlights that migrant networks help to overcome the informal barriers that exist in the international markets and boost international investment. Empirical studies on different countries confirm this prediction. This paper estimates (OLS-IV) an econometric model to study the impact of both emigration and immigration on Italy’s bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI). The main result is that only the Italian diaspora has a significant positive effect on Italy’s both inward and outward FDI. A theoretical framework, a profile of the diaspora and of immigration in Italy and some exemplary entrepreneurial histories help to interpret the econometric evidence.
EL OCIO LATINO Y EL TURISMO: COMENTARIOS CRÍTICOS
- Maximiliano Korstanje
El siguiente trabajo trata sobre la revisión del capítulo I del clásico Historia del Turismo, escrito por el prestigioso investigador Miguel Khatchikian y publicado en el 2000 por la Universidad San Martín de Porres en Perú. Su obra trata con rigurosidad científica las diferentes etapas del turismo hasta la actualidad. Comprendido, además, que la Historia del turismo es la historia de la economía del turismo que le dio nacimiento.
ANÁLISIS DEL DESARROLLO LOCAL EN ESPAÑA: ÁMBITO ECONÓMICO, SOCIAL Y JURÍDICO-TRIBUTARIO
- Ana Lópaz Pérez
Artículo en OIDLES de Ana Lópaz Pérez - El presente trabajo tiene por finalidad el estudio del desarrollo local en sus aspectos sociales, económicos y jurídico-tributarios. Como resultado de las grandes diferencias sociales en los distintos países que componen el planeta y de la mala distribución de la renta y la riqueza, a lo largo de la historia los agentes sociales y económicos han tenido que intervenir para paliar, en lo posible, las desigualdades existentes.
Presodelescorts.org. Memoria e historia de la prisión de mujeres de Les Corts (Barcelona, 1939-1955)
- Hernández Holgado, Fernando
This paper draws an innovative project of research and coverage of historical contents in the Web, about the repression of women during Francoism: the website http://presodelescorts.org, produced by Associació per la Cultura i la Memoria de Catalunya (ACMe) along 2006. The purpose of presodelescorts.org is writing and extending the long history of the women's prison de Les Corts (Barcelona, Spain) between 1939 and 1955, using very different sources: testimonies of former prisoners, images and written official sources. The description of the project is accompanied, likewise, of a little reflection about complementary connection between memory and history, both fields the project...